DiamondEdge uses a Monte Carlo game simulation engine to project every MLB game. Instead of plugging numbers into a formula, we simulate the actual game — plate appearance by plate appearance, inning by inning — thousands of times. Each simulation produces a full box score, and the aggregate of all simulations gives us our projections.
This approach captures context that formula-based models miss: lineup order effects, bullpen sequencing, platoon matchups, park factors adjusted for weather, and the natural variance of baseball.
We validated our model against 245,958 real game-bets from the 2024 MLB season using actual Retrosheet box scores. Here's what we learned:
We tested every prop type against real 2024 results. Here's what we found:
Our approach: We show you props across all types — HR, K, hits, bases — but only the ones with conviction 60+ (high-quality edges). Some markets are sharper than others, so we're pickier there. You see the best bets, period.
Most prop models project each player in isolation. Our props emerge from full game simulations — so a batter's projected stats account for who's pitching, the park, the weather, where they bat in the order, and who's hitting around them.
We don't hide behind a black box. Every projection shows you the inputs and the math. If our model says a player has a 35% HR probability, you can see why — and decide if you agree.
We don't spread across 6 sports and do them all poorly. We do one sport — baseball — and we go deeper than anyone. Every feature is built specifically for MLB betting.
Real-time weather data feeds directly into our simulation engine. Temperature, wind, and humidity affect ball flight, which affects HR rates, total bases, and run scoring — all reflected in our projections.